General mathematical model of the roadmap fight against cartels

Abstract

The article offers a description of the general algorithm for the formation of a mathematical (stochastic) model of countering cartels as a massive negative social and legal phenomenon.
The specified model allows to realize (calculate) the forecast function is a necessary element of state programs (“road maps”) to counter illegal manifestations. The formation of a mathematical model should be preceded by a stage of theoretical modeling, which establishes the constituent elements and relationships of the subject of study. It is proved that the prognostic model of the social-legal phenomenon should be based on the provisions of probability theory. A specific technique is proposed for calculating a system of stochastic indicators (mathematical expectation and standard deviation) of the corresponding model on a single methodological basis. Proposals were made for forecasting methods in relation to quantitative probabilistic models of fighting cartels. The importance of the constant (periodic) verification of the initial statistical data and the correct interpretation of the results of prediction calculations is substantiated. The directions of the practical use of the proposed model for the creation of a comparative monitoring system for the cartelization of the EAEU product markets are proposed.